Forecasting the weather in Seattle can be a tough job. The National Weather Service (used by King5, Weather.com, and other local weather experts) only had a 75% accuracy rating last year, whereas Forecast Watch (which tracks statistical accuracy of weather forecasts all over the country) has an 80% accuracy rate, still not completely reliable when you consider that 1 out of every 5 forecasts is inaccurate.

Most of the time, that inaccuracy doesn’t affect the general population much. Forecasters might say it will rain when it doesn’t, or predict warmer temperatures but instead we find cooler temperatures. Occasionally though, a weather situation will be predicted and the more unusual the prediction is, the higher we tend to set our expectations, and the more disappointed we will be when those initial predictions do not become reality.

Yesterday in the blogsophere, I saw post after post from people who were disappointed and in some cases, angry. “The Weather People Need to be Punched in the Neck“, “F**k you, Seattle & KCM“, “Seattle weather forecasters…. YOU’RE FIRED!!!“, and “Seattle schools can suck it!”. The last post was one man’s rant about the Seattle School District’s decision to close school for the day. The decision to close public schools based on weather predictions is one choice I am glad I do not have to make.

School officials’ caution dates back to a 1990 snowstorm that dumped several inches of unexpected snow, paralyzing the city and forcing 1,200 children to spend the night in their classrooms. Since then, the state’s largest school district and its suburban neighbors close as a precaution when snow threatens. (source)

Last winter, BCC received negative feedback after deciding to keep campus open despite predictions for an icy morning. I made the choice to stay home that day because it was not safe for me to walk to my bus stop, and many others made the same choice. BCC responded with a letter detailing the way the decision is made to close campus and what stuck in my mind after all this time was the note that officials have to make a choice between 2am and 5am whether to close schools based on current weather conditions and predictions. As cited above, weather prediction is only about 80% accurate at best. When weather forecasters predict the same scenario for days preceding a big storm that may cripple the region, combined with past experiences of not taking action in time, I can’t blame school district officials for declaring school closures before the storm actually strikes. If the school district had made the opposite decision and the storm did hit the greater Seattle area as predicted, many more people would have been upset that the schools hadn’t been closed as a precaution. Officials just can’t win in this situation.

The main reason that the snow did not come yesterday as expected was the so-called Olympic Rain Shadow. The mountains are similar to a boulder in a stream, splitting the flow of water and creating a calm spot just behind the boulder. Bad analogy, I know, but with Seattle’s geographical features, it’s one reason why the storm split, dumping snow on the greater Puget Sound region and not the main Seattle area. This is explained in a new book from UW professor of atmospheric sciences Cliff Mass regarding Pacific Northwest weather:

It explains how, perhaps 25 times a year, an air mass is split by the Olympic Mountains, then reconnects over Puget Sound somewhere between north Seattle and Everett in what is called the Puget Sound convergence zone, an area that can then be rainy even though the sun shines brightly just 15 miles to the south. It tells how the coastal mountains in Washington and Oregon create a “rain shadow,” wringing a great deal of moisture from Pacific storm systems on the west side of the mountains so substantially less moisture is left for areas east of the mountains. And it dispels the myth that the Seattle area is one of the rainiest places in the country, comparing Seattle’s annual rainfall of 37 inches with the averages of 47 inches in New York City and 56 inches in Miami. (source)

The Seattle region is not equipped to handle harsh winter conditions. We have less than 30 snowplows, many of which cannot access neighborhood streets due to street parking or abandoned vehicles. Metro does have chains for it’s fleet, but some of the hills in Seattle are just too steep or narrow to navigate during times of snow or ice. You can read more at this SDOT website, which includes detailed numbers of equipment, employees, and snowplow/deicing routes. We could spend more taxpayer dollars on building a better infrastructure that can handle this adverse weather, but honestly we only use it a few days a year, so it would be a waste of funds in my opinion. People here are not used to handling such conditions, so the snark from East Coast transplants who have cities used to dealing with these conditions is not appreciated either. Yes, Minnesota can handle 2 feet of snow without closing public schools, but Seattle cannot, for the very reasons I just listed above.

All in all, getting angry because the weather forecasters were wrong is honestly a waste of energy. Getting angry at the school district for not closing campuses is also unfair. We get what we get, we have no control over the weather, and we can only plan ahead for what may happen. Personally, I was glad that we did not have snow and ice yesterday, as it allowed me the chance to travel to my doctor for a post-surgery visit. With the snow today, all I can do is look at it through my window and wish I had chosen to have surgery another time. Traveling through the snow in crutches is definitely against the wishes of my doctor.

Seattlest spies [#] a story about how local Democrats are urging King County Exec Ron Sims to bow out instead of running for a fourth term, even though he’s already squirreled away a couple hundred grand for the race for the now-nonpartisan office. [times] The Daily Weekly notices a bunch of visits from the Feds and takes this as a sign that his national ambitions may be paying off because of (not despite) his early support for Senator Clinton. [#]

For his part, Sims is busy twittering about what he’s learned about migrant workers from the Philippine Daily Inquirer and noting Steve Jobs’s descision skipping out of next year’s Macworld [ronsims]. A clever distraction or a clue to his ambitions for a spot in the Obama administration?

Last week, the Seattle Times printed an opinion piece by James F. Vesely titled Impose license fee on King County cyclists. Vesely attempts to argue that it is long past the time which cyclists should be licensed and should have to start paying for the amenities “given” to them by gas-tax-paying drivers. This opinion piece is a work of extreme bias founded on misconceptions, and, in my opinion, only further divides the two camps, causing more harm than good. (more…)

Last month, the city council passed the final 2009/2010 budget plan. (The complete highlights are here.) The budget includes the following distribution to our library system:

Library Collections – City Council added $300,000 to the proposed 2009/2010 budget to provide a total of $800,000 in additional funding to support the following:
* Increase supplies of popular titles in all formats (books, digital media, etc.)
* Expand collections of online materials.
* Enlarge collections of ESL materials.
* Enhance children’s collection and increase selections of early literacy materials.
* Replace public computers.

$800,000 is not a lot for a system the size of Seattle’s to maintain a decent collection, especially when it includes computers and digital media, but I think the council did a good job balancing the need for basic human and civic services with less quantifiable quality of life and culture issues. This does mean that patrons can expect to see fewer new titles added to the system, both in terms of variety and number of copies of titles purchased, over the next two years, and books that leave the system, due to loss, theft, or damage may not necessarily be replaced. This is, of course, speculation on my part, though I dare to venture that it is informed speculation.

In other library news, Susan Hildreth, currently State Librarian of California, has been selected by the SPL board as our new City Librarian/CEO of SPL. A start date has not been announced, but she is expected to begin in early 2009.

Ms. Hildreth was appointed State Librarian of California by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in July 2004. The largest library system in the nation, the California state library has an annual operating budget of $75M, in addition to federal and state distributions, a massive construction bond program, and a cultural facilities program of $128M. Previous to her appointment to State Librarian, Ms. Hildreth served as city librarian for the City and County of San Francisco’s Public Library, managing a staff of 650 employees and a $59M annual operating budget. The Seattle Public Library currently employees 710 people with an operating budget of just $50M. The difference in budgets is notable. Will Ms. Hildreth rise to the challenging of managing an underfunded library system in one of the US’s most literate cities? Seattleites rely heavily upon our library system, placing demands upon facilities and media collections that other municipalities don’t face.

The complete press release is here.

Of particular interest to my household, starting January 4, 2009, the West Seattle Southwest Branch will be open on Sundays. Huzzah! Southwest is the only large branch that is closed on Sunday, which makes coordinating our weekly library trips a royal pain. The Southwest branch will be open 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM. The High Point Branch, a couple of miles north, which currently has Sunday hours, will lose them to Southwest; the adjustment is due to the relative size and patronage of the two branches.

The renovated Southwest branch is twice the size of High Point, has a larger collection, more staff, and more computers. The $6.2M Southwest improvement project increased footage by 6,787 square feet, upgraded equipment and technology, and transformed the parking lot from a death trap into a mere inconvenience. Southwest also got some neat public art in the project, to complement the facelift. The Southwest Branch improvement project was the 22nd project completed as part of the “Libraries for All” building program.

A couple years ago a stand-off between a menorah and a christmas tree resulted in eerie scenes of winter wonderland at Sea-Tac. This year, via the Seattle LiveJournal community [#], comes word of the latest pairing in winter icons. It seems that the baby Jesus has company this year at the State Capitol. The Freedom From Religion folks have sent a little sign to Olympia to sit along side the nativity scene. [times] My own perspective is that the weeks between Thanksgiving and New Year’s are so drenched with holiday music, overwhelming advertisements, and inescapable decorations that it doesn’t seem too grinchly to suggest that an airport or government building free of “spirit” or “anti-spirit” could be more of a refuge than an insult. Your mileage my vary.

While we’re on the topic of holiday insults, it turns out that the Bush family doesn’t want to spend their last days in the White House being taunted by their tree. Seattlest brings us the story [#] of local artist Deborah Lawrence whose McDermott-loving, Bush-hating ornament nearly made it onto the official tree before someone took a look at the fine collage print. [komo]

This may backfire. Governor Gregoire has asked Washingtonians for ideas on how to cut the state budget. On the governor’s website, she wants to know our opinion on the following:

* What government programs should we sacrifice to ensure that we can continue to provide the essentials to the people of our state?
* What ways can we reform state government to provide services more efficiently and cost-effectively?
* What government functions and programs might be better handled in the private sector or the nonprofit arena?

I don’t know about you, but I think this may open a can of some particularly nasty worms. It also has the potential to really have our needs heard by someone high enough on the “food chain” to do something about it.

(Image, of course, by Shepard Fairey)

I can’t imagine that you haven’t heard, but just in case you’ve been hiding under a rock/still celebrating Obama: tomorrow is the national day of Join the Impact protesting against California’s Proposition 8 (and, by extension, Florida’s Prop 2, and so on…) Everything starts at 10:30 in Volunteer Park, and the march to Westlake starts at 12:00. At 2:00 the rally and speeches start at Westlake.

This will be a first for me–I’ve never done the whole march/rally thing before. Metroblogging readers, will you be joining in also?

Over 3 million ballots were counted, reaching about 85% voter turnout. Congratulations citizens! We made history. (ref)

I’ve been charged with posting some photos of tonight’s impromptu party on Capitol Hill: Broadway and Pike: celebrating Obama’s victory. I spoke to the SPD on my way home and they said they were going to let the party burn out on it’s own (unless it turned violent), so expect it to continue going until the beer runs out. There were probably in excess of 1,000 people celebrating at this one intersection on the hill, undoubtedly after part of the 1st and Pike crowd joined the crowd.

Reports are coming in through Twitter, LiveJournal, text, IM, email, and all other sources that Seattlites are dancing in the streets because of Obama’s win tonight. Closest to me: Pike Street Downtown up through Capitol Hill. My best friend called to say that folks were walking down the street chanting “OBAMA! OBAMA!” Other metbloggers report similar stories: friends banging on pots and pans, champagne, beer, terrorist fist-jabs. Democrats currently hold all three sections of government on the national level.

Not all results are so clear-cut. The race for governor is still fairly close. Some networks elsewhere in the nation have called it for Gregiore, it’s one to continue watching in in days to come. After the last election in which the race was decided by less than 200 votes…don’t count your chickens before they are hatched.

Prop 1 is currently passing. Assisted Suicide I-1000 is currently passing. I-895 is currently tanking. Care Workers Certification is currently passing with flying colors. Pike Place Market Levy is currently passing, as well as City Parks. We’ll see where everything stands within a few days.

How was your election night?